Saturday Night Special
- Saturday March 29/03
Tampa Bay Lightning (35-23-14-5 89pts)vs. Florida Panthers (23-34-12-9 67pts)
by Rink Rat
The Florida Panthers have to be one of the oddest hockey teams the National Hockey League has seen for awhile. They have a general manager on the job less than a year. He's on his third team and has accomplished little except keep himself employed. The coach has bounced around the league more crazily than a runaway pinball. He's been with the team 15 months. The coach and general manager are feuding and rumours have the coach petitioning another team in the Panther's conference for a job next year. He'll probably need one, because chances are he'll be fired soon.
Sounds about right - the coach is Mike Keenan and the G.M. Rick Dudley. Dudley has told Keenan to not bother running practices for the balance of the season. Normal teams win at home and lose on the road. Not the Panthers. They've been terrible at home and decent on the road. In South Florida they are 7-20-7- 5 but anywhere else they are 16-14-5-4, which is the fifth best road record in the Eastern Conference. The law of averages says they have to win more than seven home games. They are currently on a 2-8 skid while they are 2-3 on the road. On Thursday night they lost a tough one in St. Louis, 2-1. That above-average record on the road doesn't make sense when we look at their numbers until we remind ourselves they lost to Washington 12-2 then followed that up with a 6-2 defeat in New Jersey.
Everything has been skewed since those games in mid-January. They have scored 96 goals (2.53 goals for, 7th) and conceded 106 (2.79, T-9th). They allow just over 35 shots per game. Their special teams are anything but.... The Panther power play is 13th in the conference (21/155, 13.5%). They don't draw many penalties - Carolina has the most in the conference on the road with 198, New Jersey the least with 121. Their penalty killing is 12th (149/185, 80.5%) and 185 times shorthanded is a touch on the high side. (New Jersey with the fewest, 124; Carolina the most 220). Florida has a terrible odd-man differential of -14. Even strength they are a tab better than break even at 69-65.
There is quality in the team. Centre Jokinen has had a break-out season (34- 29-63) and rookie defenceman Boumeester has survived the constant verbal pummeling from his coach and looks to have a fine future. The team has a good tandem in goal, with Hurme, who was inexplicably let go by Ottawa Senators, and Luongo, who sports a .916 save percentage which under the circumstances is remarkable.
Tampa Bay Lightning were one of three surprise teams in the early going. They wobbled a bit in the middle of the year, looked to be falling out of the play-off picture then started a run on Valentine's Day which has seen them lose twice in 16 games (10-2-4-0) and vault themselves into the third seed. They are odds on to hold off Washington for that precious seed and home ice advantage in round one of the play-offs.
Tampa had a benchmark game against the grim New Jersey Devils on Thursday and managed a 2-2 draw. Their 21-8-6-3 record (51points) ties them with Boston for the third best home record in the conference. In their past five home games they are 2-0-3. Their goals for/against record is sound (113 goals for, 3.05 goals per game, 90 goals against, 2.43, both 4th). They have a good power play (38/201, 19%, 4th) and at 201 chances they draw a lot of penalties. (Vancouver tops at 227, Chicago least at 152). Lightning penalty killing, not to be different from the other categories, is fourth also (128/140, 84.3%).
This team is disciplined and doesn't take many penalties, but Toronto does (192). Even strength Tampa is 73-67 but has a satisfactory odd-man differential of +17. The team has been led all year by their big five - Prospel, Lecavalier, Richards, St. Louis, and Boyle. Aging power play specialist Andreychuk has provided veteran reassurance. Goaltender Khabibulin has rejoined the land of the living and can take as much credit as anyone for the late-season surge.
In this game the goaltending will likely be a wash. Tampa is the better disciplined team while Keenan teams can lose their shape when put under pressure. The Lightning, on a roll right now, with more good players, and possessing better odd-man units will take this one. Play on the LIGHTNING.
The Rat can be reached via email @ rsbookiekiller@hotmail.com
- Saturday March 29/03
Tampa Bay Lightning (35-23-14-5 89pts)vs. Florida Panthers (23-34-12-9 67pts)
by Rink Rat
The Florida Panthers have to be one of the oddest hockey teams the National Hockey League has seen for awhile. They have a general manager on the job less than a year. He's on his third team and has accomplished little except keep himself employed. The coach has bounced around the league more crazily than a runaway pinball. He's been with the team 15 months. The coach and general manager are feuding and rumours have the coach petitioning another team in the Panther's conference for a job next year. He'll probably need one, because chances are he'll be fired soon.
Sounds about right - the coach is Mike Keenan and the G.M. Rick Dudley. Dudley has told Keenan to not bother running practices for the balance of the season. Normal teams win at home and lose on the road. Not the Panthers. They've been terrible at home and decent on the road. In South Florida they are 7-20-7- 5 but anywhere else they are 16-14-5-4, which is the fifth best road record in the Eastern Conference. The law of averages says they have to win more than seven home games. They are currently on a 2-8 skid while they are 2-3 on the road. On Thursday night they lost a tough one in St. Louis, 2-1. That above-average record on the road doesn't make sense when we look at their numbers until we remind ourselves they lost to Washington 12-2 then followed that up with a 6-2 defeat in New Jersey.
Everything has been skewed since those games in mid-January. They have scored 96 goals (2.53 goals for, 7th) and conceded 106 (2.79, T-9th). They allow just over 35 shots per game. Their special teams are anything but.... The Panther power play is 13th in the conference (21/155, 13.5%). They don't draw many penalties - Carolina has the most in the conference on the road with 198, New Jersey the least with 121. Their penalty killing is 12th (149/185, 80.5%) and 185 times shorthanded is a touch on the high side. (New Jersey with the fewest, 124; Carolina the most 220). Florida has a terrible odd-man differential of -14. Even strength they are a tab better than break even at 69-65.
There is quality in the team. Centre Jokinen has had a break-out season (34- 29-63) and rookie defenceman Boumeester has survived the constant verbal pummeling from his coach and looks to have a fine future. The team has a good tandem in goal, with Hurme, who was inexplicably let go by Ottawa Senators, and Luongo, who sports a .916 save percentage which under the circumstances is remarkable.
Tampa Bay Lightning were one of three surprise teams in the early going. They wobbled a bit in the middle of the year, looked to be falling out of the play-off picture then started a run on Valentine's Day which has seen them lose twice in 16 games (10-2-4-0) and vault themselves into the third seed. They are odds on to hold off Washington for that precious seed and home ice advantage in round one of the play-offs.
Tampa had a benchmark game against the grim New Jersey Devils on Thursday and managed a 2-2 draw. Their 21-8-6-3 record (51points) ties them with Boston for the third best home record in the conference. In their past five home games they are 2-0-3. Their goals for/against record is sound (113 goals for, 3.05 goals per game, 90 goals against, 2.43, both 4th). They have a good power play (38/201, 19%, 4th) and at 201 chances they draw a lot of penalties. (Vancouver tops at 227, Chicago least at 152). Lightning penalty killing, not to be different from the other categories, is fourth also (128/140, 84.3%).
This team is disciplined and doesn't take many penalties, but Toronto does (192). Even strength Tampa is 73-67 but has a satisfactory odd-man differential of +17. The team has been led all year by their big five - Prospel, Lecavalier, Richards, St. Louis, and Boyle. Aging power play specialist Andreychuk has provided veteran reassurance. Goaltender Khabibulin has rejoined the land of the living and can take as much credit as anyone for the late-season surge.
In this game the goaltending will likely be a wash. Tampa is the better disciplined team while Keenan teams can lose their shape when put under pressure. The Lightning, on a roll right now, with more good players, and possessing better odd-man units will take this one. Play on the LIGHTNING.
The Rat can be reached via email @ rsbookiekiller@hotmail.com
